Window technique for climate trend analysis     

Tamás Szentimrey  Tibor Faragó  Sándor Szalai 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):127-134

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program  相似文献   

On the determination of the European gravimetric geoid     

Drahomír Dušátko 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1992,36(4):392-393

Summary The method of the automated computation of the gravimetric deflections of the vertical and of the geoidal heights for the European region is described. The work was carried out during the period 1986–1988 by the Topographic Service of the Czechoslovak Army. The computation applies to 20 sheets of the international map 1:1 000 000 (total area of =16^c, =30^c - see Fig. 1). The mean values of the free-air anomalies for each surface element =5, =7.5, approximately 9 × 9 km, were used with radius of integration of 300 km.  相似文献   

Earthquake hazard of the northern parts of the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians     

D. Procházková  B. Guterch  A. Kijko  H. Lewandowska 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):173-181

The new procedure of earthquake hazard evaluation developed by Kijko and Sellevoll is tested and applied for the border region of Czechoslovakia and Poland. The new method differs from the conventional approach. It incorporates the uncertainty of earthquake magnitudes, and accepts mixed data containing only large historical events and recent, complete catalogues. Seismic hazard has been calculated for nine regions determined in the border area. In the investigated area, data of historical catalogues are uncertain or, in many cases, the epicentral intensities are unknown. Thus, a number of assumptions have to be adopted in data preparation of catalogues since the year 1200. The calculated values of parameters b in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-intensity relation as well as the return periods, seem to be reasonable and are generally confirmed by the results obtained from catalogues for the last 80–130 years.  相似文献   

Decay rates of sunspot groups from 1874 to 1976     

V. Martinez Pillet  F. Moreno-Insertis  M. Vázquez 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,170(1-2):3-7

The global behaviour and fine structure of the distribution of sunspot decay rates from activity cycle 13 to 20 are presented. It is shown that the distribution of this parameter is lognormal. Statistically significantly lower values of decay rates are found in cycles 13, 14, and 18 for isolated spots. The complex groups had no appreciable changes.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

Solar-type stars in Cepheus OB 2: Hα emission stars and IRAS point sources     

M. Kun  L. Pásztor 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,174(1):13-47

A survey for emission line stars was carried out in 1980 with the Schmidt telescope of Konkoly Observatory in the region of IC 1396 (Kun, 1986a, hereafter referred to as Paper I). This work was aimed at a preliminary mapping of the probable medium mass members of the association Cepheus OB 2. The stars of the region have been followed since then with the same telescope in order to obtain a more complete view on the stellar content of this giant star-forming region. The common variability of the H emission strength makes the sense of repeating such surveys. The new survey resulted in the discovery of 65 further emission stars. Equatorial coordinates and finding charts are given for them.PhotographicBVRI photometry was carried out for all known emission stars of the field. The colourmagnitude and two-colour diagrams derived from theB, V, R, andI magnitudes show that these stars are probably F-G-type (1.5M <M<3M ), partly pre-Main-Sequence members of Cep OB 2, whereas a few of them may be distant red giants.The youngest objects of the region can be found among the IRAS point sources. Their properties are discussed on the basis of IRAS data alone.  相似文献   

Photometry of AR Lac     

M. J. Arévalo  C. Lázaro 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,169(1-2):255-256

Visible photometry of the RS CVn system AR Lac is presented. We find some interesting features in the light curves. Also a possible oscillation with period 1.05 hr arises from the data. A new determination of the geometrical parameters of the system is given.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

Large-scale distribution of magnetic fields,green corona and prominences during an extended activity cycle     

Václav Bumba  Vojtech Rušin  Milan Rybanský 《Solar physics》1990,128(1):253-259

The interrelations of the latitudinal distribution of the coronal green emission maxima, maximal numbers and areas of prominences, magnetic fields, sunspots, and polar faculae in the 20th and 21st sunspot cycles have been investigated. It is again demonstrated how the behaviour of all studied data depends on their heliographic latitude. In the polar zone, well separated from the equatorial we observe following polarity magnetic fields transported only polewards, while the equatorial zone is occupied mostly by leading polarity fields, developed there, moving equatorwards, and crossing the equator to the other hemisphere with the new cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity.This magnetic field distribution is well emphasized by the places of maximal occurrence of prominences and by the distribution of coronal green emission maxima which also differ in dependence on latitude.The question of identifying the first and last evolutionary stages of an extended cycle of activity is discussed and the existence of a magnetic activity cycle lasting 15–17 years is suggested.  相似文献   

Velocity fields associated with the magnetic component of solar faculae     

J. Sánchez Almeida  M. Collados  J. C. Del Toro Iniesta 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,170(1-2):31-39

The StokesV asymmetries observed in solar faculae can be interpreted by invoking the presence of magnetic and velocity fields variations along the line-of-sight. By means of a perturbative approach, we develop the theoretical dependence on magnetic and velocity fields of the StokesV profile around its zero-crossing point. We find that the empirical curves of growth for theV zero-crossing point and the slope, as well as the curve of growth for the integral (previously derived by Sánchez Almeidaet al., 1989, through the same approach), are reproduced quite well with a single atmosphere which assumes such simultaneous variations.The depth dependence of the fields that give the best fit in our model presents several striking properties which cannot be released without totally compromising the goodness of the fit. Namely, the magnetic field strength increases towards the observer while the downflowing velocity field decreases. Both variations must occur co-spatially, in the same atmospheric layers. This fact seems to contradict theoretical models for the fanning out parts of magnetic concentrations which foresee a sharp separation between a static magnetic layer and a deep zone with velocity fields. We discuss a possible solution of such contradiction in terms of a finite optical thickness of the boundary layer between zones with and without magnetic field in faculae.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia     

J. Zahradník  M. Antonini  G. Grünthal  J. Janský  D. Procházková  E. Schmedes  A. Špičak  J. Zedník 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(1):53-71

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.  相似文献   

The role of collisions with interplanetary particles in the physical evolution of comets     

Julio A. Fernández 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1981,25(4):507-519

Effects of collisions with interplanetary particles are investigated. To this purpose, collision probabilities for comets with different orbital elements are computed. It is found that collisions may have a non-negligible effect on the physical evolution of comets. In this connection, it is shown that under certain conditions collisional lifetimes may be shorter than dynamical or vaporization lifetimes. In particular, collisional lifetimes are on average shorter for comets in retrograde orbits than those for direct ones. It is further suggested that catastrophic collisions may contribute to prevent long-period comets in retrograde orbits from reaching short-period orbits by orbital diffusion. Collisions may also produce irregularities of the nucleus brightness by leaving exposed regions of fresh volatile material and may in this way lead to a rejuvenation of old dusty short-period comets. Catastrophic collision probabilities are too low to account for the observed comet splittings, so other trigger mechanisms should be at work. However, it is shown that collisional mini-bursts (increases in brightness of one magnitude or so) caused by decimeter-sized bodies may occur rather frequently on short-period comets when they pass through the asteroid belt. The burst observed in comet Tempel-2 at 3 AU in December, 1978 could be an example of such collisional mini-bursts. The systematic observation of periodic comets when they pass through the asteroid belt could give valuable information about the spatial density of decimeter and meter-sized bodies. In particular, collisional effects for comet Halley, for which a continuous surveillance is planned, are evaluated.  相似文献